Time for the 2nd week of the Mike Likes Sports Upset Special.
First thing's first, however, so let's take a look back at last week's predictions.
#7 LSU at Mississippi State
What I wrote: Seems about time for the Jordan Jefferson sophomore slump. Really thought of taking this one, but new Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is too unproven for me to stake my pick on him
What happened: LSU escaped, 30 to 26. Safety Chad Jones was the hero, returning a punt for a touchdown and making back to back touchdown saving tackles on a last minute goal-line stand to preserve victory for the Bayou Bengals.
It was a strange day for the Tigers, whose traditional strengths - the run game and their defense - nearly did them in while Jefferson (15/28, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) kept them in the game.
South Florida at #18 Florida State
What I wrote: - I would have been all over this had Matt Grothe not torn up his knee. Nice story with new QB BJ Daniels - a Tallahassee native - coming home but without Grothe, I don't think its happening
What happened: South Florida pulled off the upset, 17 to 7. Daniels was the hero, with an ugly day throwing the ball - 8/21, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs - but also 126 yards rushing.
#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
What I wrote: You just know Tech is going to rip off 300 yards rushing in a game that they need to save their conference title hopes. Not big enough to merit a full Upset Special
What happened: Georgia Tech wins, 24-7. Total rushing yards for Tech: 317. I love being right, mostly because it makes me feel a bit better about the last two games...
#15 TCU at Clemson
What I wrote: I don't care if TCU is top 25 and Clemson isn't; I don't care if TCU annually overachieves while Clemson perennially disappoints; and I certainly don't care about everybody hyping the Frogs as a BCS buster when we all know that they'll lose a game sooner or later.
Bottom line is this: a mid major team is going into Death Valley to face CJ Spiller. Barring a Clemson-esque meltdown - and hey, those are always fun - the power conference team is going to win.
Wow, I just sounded WAY too much like Colin Cowherd. Let's get to the pick before I headline a terrible ESPN News show with a much more attractive and talented co-host.
What happened: Everything was going to plan until freshman QB Kyle Parker had a panic attack in the second half (59 pass yards compared to 133 in the first).
Spiller did his part, exceeding 220 all purpose yards for the 3rd straight game and in the process joining Reggie Bush as the 2nd player ever to tally at least 2,500 yards rushing, 1,500 yards in kickoff returns, 1,00 yards receiving and 500 yards in punt returns.
Is there a more under-appreciated great college player than Spiller? Memo to Cal fans and anyone else who thinks Best is the closest thing to Bush since #5 himself - he's not. Spiller is. Enjoy the rest of his senior year, because he bears the torch as the most exciting player in college football.
The Mike Likes Sports Upset Special: Arkansas 35, #3 Alabama 28
What happened: Alabama 35, Arkansas 7, Mike's credibility -5.
Simply put, UGH. Alabama won big for the exact reasons that everyone anticipated: dominating both lines of scrimmage, abusing Arkansas' overmatched secondary, and exploiting Arkansas' nasty habit of giving up big plays (3 TDs of more than 50 yards). Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Razorbacks did.
What Bama did a lot better than I expected was pressuring Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, and in the process short circuiting Arkansas' passing game. The Hawgs' receivers couldn't exploit any potential mismatches against the Alabama secondary because there was no time for plays to develop, and together with a paltry 63 yards on the ground, that ended any hope of the upset. Ho Hum.
Week 5 Honorable Mentions
#4 LSU at #18 Georgia - A lot of people think UGA is going to win this game, on the strength of being at home and a 3 game winning streak in the series.
Those people have not watched Georgia play this season.
Last week, the Bulldogs had to go to overtime at home to beat an Arizona State team that likely will finish in the bottom half of the Pac 10 (take that, SEC homers!). The week before, they had all sorts of problems beating the same Arkansas team that got demolished in Tuscaloosa. And in week 1, they got beat convincingly by an overrated Oklahoma State team.
The problem, other than the usual spate of crippling injuries that seemingly plagues Georgia every year, is that they replaced a great group of players from last year's team with a group that isn't as good.
Joe Cox isn't as good as Matthew Stafford, just like Michael Moore isn't as good as Mohammed Massequoi. Meanwhile, Richard Samuel and Caleb King have the potential to be as good or better than Knowshon Moreno, ditto Branden Smith and Asher Allen - but they have yet to do so. Only AJ Green is playing at a dramatically better level than last year, but even he isn't enough to compensate for the rest of the team's shortcomings.
So Georgia has issues, and this week the bubble is going to burst against LSU, even though the Tigers have looked just as shaky. All that means is a full week of ESPN hyping Florida vs. LSU next week, followed by the Gators filleting the Tigers in much the same manner of this weekend's game in Athens
#25 Georgia Tech at Mississippi State - Two repeat customers from last week's honorable mentions. Mississippi State looked nasty at home against LSU, holding the Tigers to 30 yards rushing. They also looked toothless two weeks ago at home against Auburn, letting the other Tigers run for 390 yards against them.
So which team is showing up? If they've shown an ability to stop it before, I tend to believe they can do it again, especially since Georgia Tech rarely passes the ball to keep defenses honest.
Just like last week, however, this isn't a big enough upset for the Special
#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami - This wouldn't have been worth mentioning had Sam Bradford played. But he isn't, and so this is.
Crazy Sooner fans (and they're crazy, trust me) probably want my head on a stick for saying that, and would eulogize me with tales of Landry Jones' 673 passing yards and 9 TDs to this point of the season.
Should that happen, my ghost will haunt them from the afterlife with steady reminders that all 9 of those TDS were thrown at home against Idaho State and Tulsa, and that he spent his only game time against a real team hyperventilating against BYU. In other words, Mr. Jones has proven nothing.
I'm not bringing that up as a means of suggesting that Landry Jones is bad quarterback, but rather to highlight the difference between what he's seen and what he will see - a fast Miami defense in a loud Pro Player Stadium.
Of course, Miami is far from a proven product in their own right. They propelled up the charts on the strength of wins against a clearly lackluster Florida State team, and a disappointing Georgia Tech; their offensive line is a work in progress; and their defensive line is missing two starters for this weekend including star-in-the-making Marcus Forston.
Truth be told, I'm not sure what is going to happen in this one, which is what makes it exciting. Miami's explosive yet green offensive is going to be in for a huge test against Oklahoma's stiff defense, while the loss of Forston is a huge blow to the Canes' chances of stopping DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown.
On the flip side, however, is the sheer athleticism Miami brings to the table as well as a swagger that is unique to the U; do not underestimate either one. Jones has yet to see a defense this fast, while the Sooners' secondary might not have enough bodies to match up with a deep Canes' receiving corps.
The most unpredictable game of the day, which is what will make it worth watching.
The Mike Likes Sports Upset Special - #22 Michigan vs. Michigan State
I'm not sure how Michigan is as low as #22 with a 4-0 record and a victory over Notre Dame, and given that Michigan State is just 1-3, I think this qualifies as a big upset.
Like Georgia, Michigan has quietly struggled in a decent portion of the season. Beating Notre Dame was a tough task against a quality opponent, so no need to penalize the Wolverines there but the same cannot be said for having to eke out a last minute victory against Big 10 doormat Indiana nor for letting Eastern Michigan hang within a touchdown up until late in the 3rd quarter.
As good as he is, Tate Forcier is going to play like the true freshman he is and such a performance would be enough to push the Wolverines over the razor's edge they've walked and into the loss column.
That performance is going to come against a desperate Michigan State in East Lansing. While Michigan will seek to avenge last year's loss in Ann Arbor, Sparty has a much greater need to preserve their bowl game hopes.
A little research into that 1-3 record shows that MSU hasn't played that badly. They lost to Notre Dame, but did so on the road and only after a lengthy drive from the suddenly impressive Jimmy Clausen.
The week before, they fell at home to Central Michigan, which seems pathetic in name only as Chippewa QB Dan LeFevour could start for most BCS teams, and put on a Tim Tebow-esque performance in the win.
Even last week's loss to Wisconsin showed some promise, as the Spartans rallied furiously in the 4th quarter to get within 10 points before running out of time.
The problem isn't talent as much as it is inexperience, particularly QB with first time starters Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol splitting reps. The good news is the pair is starting to get their sea legs under them, and Mark Dantonio is a too smart of a coach not to right the ship.
Never underestimate the capacity of a rivalry game to level the playing field between two teams, and in this case, never underestimate a desperate team at home in a rivalry game. Michigan may want this one more, but Michigan State needs it.
Final Score: #22 Michigan 20, Michigan State 29.
Overall Upset Special Record: 1-1
