Friday, October 2, 2009

Upset Special: Week 5


Time for the 2nd week of the Mike Likes Sports Upset Special.

First thing's first, however, so let's take a look back at last week's predictions.


#7 LSU at Mississippi State

What I wrote: Seems about time for the Jordan Jefferson sophomore slump. Really thought of taking this one, but new Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is too unproven for me to stake my pick on him

What happened: LSU escaped, 30 to 26. Safety Chad Jones was the hero, returning a punt for a touchdown and making back to back touchdown saving tackles on a last minute goal-line stand to preserve victory for the Bayou Bengals.

It was a strange day for the Tigers, whose traditional strengths - the run game and their defense - nearly did them in while Jefferson (15/28, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) kept them in the game.

South Florida at #18 Florida State

What I wrote: - I would have been all over this had Matt Grothe not torn up his knee. Nice story with new QB BJ Daniels - a Tallahassee native - coming home but without Grothe, I don't think its happening

What happened: South Florida pulled off the upset, 17 to 7. Daniels was the hero, with an ugly day throwing the ball - 8/21, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs - but also 126 yards rushing.

#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech

What I wrote: You just know Tech is going to rip off 300 yards rushing in a game that they need to save their conference title hopes. Not big enough to merit a full Upset Special

What happened: Georgia Tech wins, 24-7. Total rushing yards for Tech: 317. I love being right, mostly because it makes me feel a bit better about the last two games...

#15 TCU at Clemson

What I wrote: I don't care if TCU is top 25 and Clemson isn't; I don't care if TCU annually overachieves while Clemson perennially disappoints; and I certainly don't care about everybody hyping the Frogs as a BCS buster when we all know that they'll lose a game sooner or later.

Bottom line is this: a mid major team is going into Death Valley to face CJ Spiller. Barring a Clemson-esque meltdown - and hey, those are always fun - the power conference team is going to win.

Wow, I just sounded WAY too much like Colin Cowherd. Let's get to the pick before I headline a terrible ESPN News show with a much more attractive and talented co-host.


What happened: Everything was going to plan until freshman QB Kyle Parker had a panic attack in the second half (59 pass yards compared to 133 in the first).

Spiller did his part, exceeding 220 all purpose yards for the 3rd straight game and in the process joining Reggie Bush as the 2nd player ever to tally at least 2,500 yards rushing, 1,500 yards in kickoff returns, 1,00 yards receiving and 500 yards in punt returns.

Is there a more under-appreciated great college player than Spiller? Memo to Cal fans and anyone else who thinks Best is the closest thing to Bush since #5 himself - he's not. Spiller is. Enjoy the rest of his senior year, because he bears the torch as the most exciting player in college football.

The Mike Likes Sports Upset Special: Arkansas 35, #3 Alabama 28

What happened: Alabama 35, Arkansas 7, Mike's credibility -5.

Simply put, UGH. Alabama won big for the exact reasons that everyone anticipated: dominating both lines of scrimmage, abusing Arkansas' overmatched secondary, and exploiting Arkansas' nasty habit of giving up big plays (3 TDs of more than 50 yards). Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Razorbacks did.

What Bama did a lot better than I expected was pressuring Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, and in the process short circuiting Arkansas' passing game. The Hawgs' receivers couldn't exploit any potential mismatches against the Alabama secondary because there was no time for plays to develop, and together with a paltry 63 yards on the ground, that ended any hope of the upset. Ho Hum.


Week 5 Honorable Mentions

#4 LSU at #18 Georgia - A lot of people think UGA is going to win this game, on the strength of being at home and a 3 game winning streak in the series.

Those people have not watched Georgia play this season.

Last week, the Bulldogs had to go to overtime at home to beat an Arizona State team that likely will finish in the bottom half of the Pac 10 (take that, SEC homers!). The week before, they had all sorts of problems beating the same Arkansas team that got demolished in Tuscaloosa. And in week 1, they got beat convincingly by an overrated Oklahoma State team.

The problem, other than the usual spate of crippling injuries that seemingly plagues Georgia every year, is that they replaced a great group of players from last year's team with a group that isn't as good.

Joe Cox isn't as good as Matthew Stafford, just like Michael Moore isn't as good as Mohammed Massequoi. Meanwhile, Richard Samuel and Caleb King have the potential to be as good or better than Knowshon Moreno, ditto Branden Smith and Asher Allen - but they have yet to do so. Only AJ Green is playing at a dramatically better level than last year, but even he isn't enough to compensate for the rest of the team's shortcomings.

So Georgia has issues, and this week the bubble is going to burst against LSU, even though the Tigers have looked just as shaky. All that means is a full week of ESPN hyping Florida vs. LSU next week, followed by the Gators filleting the Tigers in much the same manner of this weekend's game in Athens

#25 Georgia Tech at Mississippi State - Two repeat customers from last week's honorable mentions. Mississippi State looked nasty at home against LSU, holding the Tigers to 30 yards rushing. They also looked toothless two weeks ago at home against Auburn, letting the other Tigers run for 390 yards against them.

So which team is showing up? If they've shown an ability to stop it before, I tend to believe they can do it again, especially since Georgia Tech rarely passes the ball to keep defenses honest.

Just like last week, however, this isn't a big enough upset for the Special

#8 Oklahoma at #17 Miami - This wouldn't have been worth mentioning had Sam Bradford played. But he isn't, and so this is.

Crazy Sooner fans (and they're crazy, trust me) probably want my head on a stick for saying that, and would eulogize me with tales of Landry Jones' 673 passing yards and 9 TDs to this point of the season.

Should that happen, my ghost will haunt them from the afterlife with steady reminders that all 9 of those TDS were thrown at home against Idaho State and Tulsa, and that he spent his only game time against a real team hyperventilating against BYU. In other words, Mr. Jones has proven nothing.

I'm not bringing that up as a means of suggesting that Landry Jones is bad quarterback, but rather to highlight the difference between what he's seen and what he will see - a fast Miami defense in a loud Pro Player Stadium.

Of course, Miami is far from a proven product in their own right. They propelled up the charts on the strength of wins against a clearly lackluster Florida State team, and a disappointing Georgia Tech; their offensive line is a work in progress; and their defensive line is missing two starters for this weekend including star-in-the-making Marcus Forston.

Truth be told, I'm not sure what is going to happen in this one, which is what makes it exciting. Miami's explosive yet green offensive is going to be in for a huge test against Oklahoma's stiff defense, while the loss of Forston is a huge blow to the Canes' chances of stopping DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown.

On the flip side, however, is the sheer athleticism Miami brings to the table as well as a swagger that is unique to the U; do not underestimate either one. Jones has yet to see a defense this fast, while the Sooners' secondary might not have enough bodies to match up with a deep Canes' receiving corps.

The most unpredictable game of the day, which is what will make it worth watching.

The Mike Likes Sports Upset Special - #22 Michigan vs. Michigan State

I'm not sure how Michigan is as low as #22 with a 4-0 record and a victory over Notre Dame, and given that Michigan State is just 1-3, I think this qualifies as a big upset.

Like Georgia, Michigan has quietly struggled in a decent portion of the season. Beating Notre Dame was a tough task against a quality opponent, so no need to penalize the Wolverines there but the same cannot be said for having to eke out a last minute victory against Big 10 doormat Indiana nor for letting Eastern Michigan hang within a touchdown up until late in the 3rd quarter.

As good as he is, Tate Forcier is going to play like the true freshman he is and such a performance would be enough to push the Wolverines over the razor's edge they've walked and into the loss column.

That performance is going to come against a desperate Michigan State in East Lansing. While Michigan will seek to avenge last year's loss in Ann Arbor, Sparty has a much greater need to preserve their bowl game hopes.

A little research into that 1-3 record shows that MSU hasn't played that badly. They lost to Notre Dame, but did so on the road and only after a lengthy drive from the suddenly impressive Jimmy Clausen.

The week before, they fell at home to Central Michigan, which seems pathetic in name only as Chippewa QB Dan LeFevour could start for most BCS teams, and put on a Tim Tebow-esque performance in the win.

Even last week's loss to Wisconsin showed some promise, as the Spartans rallied furiously in the 4th quarter to get within 10 points before running out of time.

The problem isn't talent as much as it is inexperience, particularly QB with first time starters Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol splitting reps. The good news is the pair is starting to get their sea legs under them, and Mark Dantonio is a too smart of a coach not to right the ship.

Never underestimate the capacity of a rivalry game to level the playing field between two teams, and in this case, never underestimate a desperate team at home in a rivalry game. Michigan may want this one more, but Michigan State needs it.

Final Score: #22 Michigan 20, Michigan State 29.

Overall Upset Special Record: 1-1

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

YouTube Tuesday: Some People Never Learn Edition


We've all heard the saying "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

It's nearly as old as Al Davis, and timeless enough that I don't even have to come up with a snarky introduction for it, which truly says something because I'm all about the snarky introduction.

So yes, "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."

I just have one question: what happens when you get fooled a 4th time?

If someone comes up with an answer for that one, by all means let me know. But before you do, email that bad boy over to the Buffalo Bills because they're about 2 weeks away from finding out what the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys already learned the hard way: Terrell Owens is an asshole.

I know, I know this isn't groundbreaking news for the rest of America but seeing as how the city of Buffalo doubles as God's meat locker, I say we cut them a little slack. In all honesty, they probably just discovered cable TV last month. Unfortunately for them, it doesn't change the fact that the Bills' locker room is about to become a war zone.

If you saw TO's post game presser on Sunday, you know exactly what I'm talking about. To his credit, a visibly frustrated Owens' was trying to contain it but even underneath a bucket hat and behind dark sunglasses, you could see the feral animal trying to break loose from its cage. He succeeded in holding it back this time, but he always does at first.

But give it time. The reason the media "goaded" - his word, not mine - Owens with questions about his role in the offense and not catching a ball for the first time in 186(!!!) games is because sooner or later, he'll take the bait and give them a month's worth of material.

For the record, I really do believe TO when he says that he's "trying to do the best job [he] can do as far as answering the questions and trying to be a better teammate and not try to throw people under the bus" but the key word in that sentence is 'try' because eventually, he won't try hard enough.

I'm a Cowboys fan, so I've been through it all before. I have friends who are Eagles fans and 49er fans; they have too.

And despite the visceral hatred those fan bases harbor toward one another, they all have one thing in common: on days like Sunday afternoon, they all shake their heads, laugh, and utter four words that could clear the conscience of a death row inmate: "not my problem anymore!"

Maybe its Owens' admittedly tragic upbringing, maybe its his DNA, maybe its something else altogether...but I won't be fooled again. Shame on those of you who do.

This week's YouTube dedication is a 4:30 postcard from Philadelphia their friends in upstate New York. Buffalo fans, welcome to October 2009:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KEGfpP9XlI

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Introducing the Mike Likes Sports Upset Special!


I said back in July that I needed more bloggy stuff, and I realize now in September that I need an easy go-to column, a concept that I can run with week-to-week, without killing myself putting it together.

Since I'm always looking for an excuse to talk college football, and because everybody loves a good upset, I'm bringing you the Mike Likes Sports Upset Special, which will run sometime every Thursday or Friday, and will predict a top 25 upset for that week's slate of games.

Now, picking upsets is probably one of the toughest things to do in college football, as there's usually only one to two big ones each week and they very often come completely at random; in other words, I offer you no guarantee of success and in no way, shape, or form do I advise you to take these to Vegas...unless you already took one of these to Vegas and it panned out, in which case my cut is about 15% of the profits.

Think of this as using a metal detector to find a needle in the haystack; it's still really difficult with poor odds, but it will save you some time wading through horse crap.

We've got about 10 weeks left of regular season play, and truth be told, I'd be thrilled if I break even, happy if I go 4-6, and content if it's 3-7. Like I said, keep the expectations low; it's more food for thought than anything else.

If I DO have a track record to go on, it's this - last week's pick would have been USC-Washington. Really. I'll even post the write up I had if anyone cares enough to challenge me on this. In fact, I'm starting myself off at 1-0, mostly to buttress my ego in preparation for the onslaught of wrong that I'm about to encounter.

Before we get to the pick, let's go with the honorable mentions:

*#7 LSU at Mississippi State - Seems about time for the Jordan Jefferson sophomore slump. Really thought of taking this one, but new Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is too unproven for me to stake my pick on him

*South Florida at #18 Florida State
- I would have been all over this had Matt Grothe not torn up his knee. Nice story with new QB BJ Daniels - a Tallahassee native - coming home but without Grothe, I don't think its happening

*#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech - You just know Tech is going to rip off 300 yards rushing in a game that they need to save their conference title hopes. Not big enough to merit a full Upset Special.

*#15 TCU at Clemson
- I don't care if TCU is top 25 and Clemson isn't; I don't care if TCU annually overachieves while Clemson perennially disappoints; and I certainly don't care about everybody hyping the Frogs as a BCS buster when we all know that they'll lose a game sooner or later.

Bottom line is this: a mid major team is going into Death Valley to face CJ Spiller. Barring a Clemson-esque meltdown - and hey, those are always fun - the power conference team is going to win.

Wow, I just sounded WAY too much like Colin Cowherd. Let's get to the pick before I headline a terrible ESPN News show with a much more attractive and talented co-host.


Arkansas at #3 Alabama

I really like Arkansas, so much so that this is my pick to be the next Ole Miss (circa 2008, not the underwhelming bunch we’ve seen so far this season).

I like them because their offense is very, very good – not SEC, “we can clear 20 points in a game” good; actually good.

It starts with having a quarterback under center that isn’t a total Dick (get your mind out of the gutter - I’m referring to Casey and Nathan). In particular, it starts with having Ryan Mallett under center, who pretty much hits every cliché in Southern football hero checklist.

*Built like a steel beam (6’7’’, 245lbs) with a bazooka for a right arm? Check.

*Put your small, football obsessed Texas border town (Texarkana) on the map? Check.

*Go away up north to school (Michigan) before coming back to your hometown school? Check.

*Lead your hometown school back to national relevance? Pending.

So far, so good for Mallett, who has thrown for 717 yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs in his first two games in Fayetteville, with 5 of those coming in last weekend’s barn burner against Georgia.

The physical skills are there in abundance with more than one comparison being made to a young Drew Bledsoe, which can be both good (the size and the arm) and bad (slightly more mobile than the Washington Monument) depending on your perspective. But make no mistake, he’ll shred secondaries apart if he’s given time to throw.

He’s got plenty of help, too. The running back troika of 2008 rushing leader Michael Smith, USC transfer Broderick Green, and true freshman Ronnie Wingo Jr. give the Hawgs a nice balance of small, big, and everything in between. The receivers – namely Joe Adams, Jairus Wright, and Greg Childs – can flat-out run while tight end DJ Williams is among the top five nationally at his position.

What separates this group from the 2009 Ole Misses of the world, however, is coaching. Say what you want about his professional ethics but Bobby Petrino knows how to win and has experienced success everywhere he’s gone in the college game.

Sure, he’ll probably be coaching at another school before the redshirt sophomore Mallett has completed his eligibility, but for now, he’s going to get the ship righted in a hurry.

Back to this week, though, and the young Razorbacks’ upcoming tangle in Tuscaloosa. Make no mistake about it, the Crimson Tide are every bit the tough, nasty bunch you’d expect an Alabama team to be, with perhaps the nation’s best defense; a power running game headed by Mark Ingram and true freshman Trent Richardson; and The Amazing Julio Jones, whose physical gifts necessitate capitalization.

In many ways, this is a battle of ideologies as much as a football game, the quasi-spread aerial prowess of Arkansas versus the old school, bruising tenacity of Alabama. It’s also a battle of one of the game’s next big coaches, Petrino, versus one of its alpha dogs, Nick Saban.

Needless to say, there is an above average level of intrigue for a game between a top 3 team playing at home against an unranked one.

There’s good reason for that ranking disparity, as Alabama’s defense significantly outclasses the Razorbacks unit and should their new O Line starters (LT James Carpenter, C William Vlachos, and RG Barrett Jones) hold up, they’ll likely have an advantage on both fronts.

So why am I picking the baby ‘Backs on the road? For two reasons.

First, that tremendous offense. I think the Tide should be able to handle the ground game with relative ease, but their secondary – which isn’t as strong as the front 7 – is going to struggle to contain all three of the wideouts as well as Williams; somebody’s going to get loose and with the receiving corps’ straight line speed, Mallet will have opportunities to throw the long ball for big points.

Alabama can counter this by dropping one of their outstanding linebackers, Rolando McClain or Dont’a Hightower, into coverage but that mitigate their advantage against the run, something Saban is likely to avoid, especially given Alabama’s lack of a dominant edge rusher, the closest thing to a weakness this defense has.

Any way you cut it, Arksansas’ offense is talented enough to create opportunities for Mallett to put points on the board, and as he’s shown so far this season, he makes opponents pay when he has time to throw.

But the bigger reason, more than the x’s and o’s, is a gut feeling that the time is now for Arkansas. This game is eerily similar to last year’s Ole Miss’ victory over Florida in Gainesville, and the young 2009 season already has established a pattern of top 5 teams going down in upset fashion.

Alabama is favored for their dominance in the trenches and the very high likelihood that Julio Jones will abuse the Razorbacks’ smaller corners.

But for as well as they’ve played so far, this still is a team with a first year starting QB (Greg McElroy) playing behind an overhauled offensive line and if Arkansas’s big play offense goes up a couple of scores, nobody knows how well the Tide play catch up against a deficit larger than one point (which they faced against Virginia Tech).

Every up and coming program needs a statement game, a put-it-on-the-map type of victory. This is Arkansas’, Ryan Mallett’s, and Bobby Petrino’s, and it comes, ironically enough, against the team that did the very same thing at around this time last season

Arkansas 35, Alabama 28

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

YouTube Tuesday: Run Like a Man Edition


There are two types of running backs in this world: those who eschew contact, and those who seek it out.

The former are the ones we'll tell our kids about, complete with the jukes, cuts, dives, and blazing speed. They are the Maseratis, the Ferraris, the Aston Martins; they look great and turn the corner better than you or I do anything.

The latter are the bulldozers who run with a vengeance. Certainly, they want to score touchdowns, get their yards, and make the evening highlights show, but they want to hurt people along the way.

It's a special breed of back; hell, it's a special breed of human that wants to punish someone along their own way to personal glory, which makes it less surprising that the prototypical contact-seeking back, Jim Brown, was a hot magnet for controversy who felt so unappreciated by the NFL that he retired at age 29.

Now, let the record show that I have nothing but love and ardor for that first group of running backs. I was fortunate enough to grow up in Dallas in the 1990s and attend USC in the mid 2000's, which means that my formative football watching years have been shaped by Emmitt Smith's career and Reggie Bush's junior season. I wouldn't trade those memories for anything.

That being said, there is something immensely satisfying about watching a 225 lb (or thereabouts) running back pound men who outweigh them up to 40 lbs (or thereabouts) flatter than Carlos Mencia punchline.

Trouble is, while the number of average contact-seeking, power backs is probably equal to or even a little greater than the average contact-eschewing, speed backs, there is a disparity between the great contact-eschewing backs and the great contact-seeking backs at the NFL level.

Indeed, I've grown up regaled on stories of Brown (by my father) and Earl Campbell (everyone else in the state of Texas), but I've never seen a really great, transcendent one in my 15 years or so of following the NFL.

Until now.

You know where I'm going with this (probably because I slapped a nice big photo of him at the top of this post), but Adrian Peterson is the closest thing to Brown since Brown himself...and if you don't believe me, listen to Brown gush about AD (as in All Day, or what Oklahoma fans demand he be called under penalty of death. Seriously, OU fans are crazy - bring up the 'AP' moniker around one sometime and see what happens. Or don't. Actually, don't. It's for the best.) sometime.

Simply put, he runs like a man, and it's just so damn entertaining. Bill Simmons once wrote that he runs like the biggest kid on the playground, and that's most apt, simple description I can of.

Sadly, he'll probably suffer the same cruel fate of Earl Campbell and wind up in a wheelchair 20 years from now due to all the abuse he'll take but for right now, all we can do as fans of the sport is watch him do what hasn't been done for decades.

What prompted all this? A 64 yard TD run against Cleveland on Sunday that ironically resembled the greatest Brown of them all. It's barely a minute long, but this YouTube clip just screams greatness:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrhBXbVmrWc&feature=popular

Nine Worth Noting: Breaking Down the Champions League Contenders



With the group stages of the Champions League opening today, fans from team across the globe have their hearts aflutter over the romantic notion that their club could take home the claret jug and be crowned the best team in Europe.

While that’s adorable, it’s also delusional. Soccer is a game of economic haves and have-nots and the occasional 2004 Porto notwithstanding, the haves win.

Every. Damn. Time.

I’m a pragmatist, so rather than go into detail about all thirty two teams, let’s instead delve into discussion over the real contenders for European glory. By my count, there are nine and only nine.

Below is the breakdown of why each team can, or cannot win, as well as the player that will make or break their fortunes. Enjoy.



Arsenal

Why They Can: Creativity. Arsenal have long been lauded for playing attractive football and this group is no different. Cesc Fabergas and Andrey Arshavin are two of the game’s premier attacking midfielders while the versatile Robin Van Persie can stymie defenses either from the wing or more commonly up front as a striker.

It will only get better for the Gunners, as Czech midfielder Tomas Rosicky just returned from a lengthy injury layoff while 21 year old French wizard Samir Nasri should be back on the pitch by late October, giving them a group whose technical ability is rivaled only by Barcelona and Real Madrid.



Why They Can’t: Strength. For all their skill, Arsenal can be easily bullied. The center back pairing of William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen are technically sound but neither is taller than 5’10’’, making them ripe for bigger strikers to out-jump and out-muscle.

Of even greater concern is the glaring lack of a powerful ball winner in the midfield, a weakness that has gone unaddressed since Patrick Vieira’s departure in 2005. None of Arsenal’s great playmakers play much defense, so if they lose possession it takes a while to get it back.

Put it together and Arsenal could really struggle should they run into physical sides from England or Italy, having already lost league matches to Manchester United and Manchester City this season.



X Factor: Manuel Almunia. Given their reliance on highly skilled young players, the understated 34 year old keeper seemingly flies in the face of Arsenal’s entire philosophy. The former backup to Jens Lehmann, Almunia has done just fine since being promoted into the first team midway through the 2007-2008 campaign.

Yet given the Gunner’s struggles with fitness and the aforementioned problems with bigger and stronger teams, Almunia could face a much heavier workload in this year’s European campaign; how he fares could be the difference between being an above average shot stopper and a potentially great one.



Barcelona

Why They Can: Because they’re even better than last year. Barcelona already won the treble in 2008-2009, and that was before they added Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whose ball skills and ability to play with his back to the goal are a better fit for the Catalans’ up-tempo style than the departed Samuel Eto’o.



Why They Can’t: Barcelona is the most complete side in the world, so any criticism really is nitpicking. That being said, Barcelona’s defense is very rarely tested and given the individual qualities of their backline, could show some leaks if it was. Both Dani Alves and the left back duo of Eric Abidal and Maxwell are subpar in defense, while Victor Valdes has never inspired full confidence among the Blaugrana faithful.

Of course, much of this is conjecture; Barcelona boasts such a superior possession rate that the defense seldom has much work to do. Until someone applies consistent pressure to it, it will be impossible to tell just how good – or bad – the backline truly is.



X Factor: Valdes. Seemingly every transfer campaign begins the same way for FCB: Valdes to be sold, ______ to replace him. Yet when the summer ends, there stands Valdes between the pipes. Though the keeper has been prone to the occasional mental lapse, he is still a very solid player who has more than earned his blue and maroon stripes. But like an erratic closer in baseball, you never feel fully safe with Valdes in goal and if one of those errors comes at the wrong time…



Bayern Munich

Why They Can: “Robbery” aka wingers Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery. They give Bayern the world’s best pair of wide men, bar none, and together give Bayern the rare ability to wreak havoc on either flank. Indeed, since Robben’s arrival just before the transfer window closed in late August, Bayern have gone from sputtering to sensational in the blink of an eye, most recently dominating Borussia Dortmund 5-1.



Why They Can’t: Goalkeeping . When German legend Oliver Kahn retired after the 2007 season, everyone knew that he would leave some big boots to fill but nobody expected Germany’s most flagship club to struggle so mightily in filling them. 25 year old Michael Rensing was seen as Kahn’s successor both at Bayern and with the German national team, yet he has struggled under the weight of those expectations and was replaced by veteran Hans-Georg Butt. While Butt is solid, he is hardly spectacular and coupled with an often shaky backline, will struggle against Europe’s elite attacking units.



X Factor: Daniel Van Buyten. Bayern was defensively suspect last season, which made the sale of long time defensive stalwart Lucio to Inter Milan that much more puzzling. If the Bavarians are to make a serious run at the Champions League crown, they will need the Belgian international to shepherd the defense as well as marking some of Europe’s top strikers. No small task to say the least, but unless youngster Holger Badstuber plays well beyond his years, Van Buyten is the only man fit for the job.



Chelsea

Why They Can: Balance. If Barcelona is the most complete team in the world, Chelsea is a close second, with no discernable weakness. They boast two prolific strikers in Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka; an outstanding keeper in Petr Cech; an elite center back tandem in John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho; perhaps the world’s finest left back in Ashley Cole; and quality midfielders galore in Michael Essien, Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack, John Obi Mikel, Deco, and Florent Malouda.

On top of that, it’s an experienced group, both in the amount of time played with each other and the games spent competing at the game’s highest level.



Why They Can’t: Age. For all those prolific names mentioned, many of them are entering the latter stages of their prime. In particular, Lampard, Ballack, Drogba, Anelka, Carvalho, and Deco are all on the wrong side of 30, with Terry and Cole each turning 29 before the year is out.

The problem is exacerbated by FIFA’s recent ruling that the Blues can’t transfer in any players until January 2011, a brutal blow should anyone in Chelsea’s aging squad go down with an injury.

The cherry on the sundae? Drogba, Mikel, and Essien will miss nearly all of January playing in the African Cup of Nations.



X Factor: Mikel. New Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti has been determined to put his stamp on the side by importing his signature 4-1-2-1 “diamond” formation from AC Milan, irrespective of the fact that the personnel at hand might be better suited for a different batch of tactics.

Indeed, while Lampard has had little problem slotting behind the strikers and though Essien is right at home in the holding midfielder role, John Obi Mikel has experienced difficulty replicating Andrea Pirlo’s role as the deep lying playmaker. While his strengths (attacking runs through the middle of the park) are different than what the position calls for (deferential, visionary passing), Ancelotti has nonetheless slotted him into the position and likely will keep him there.

His success will be crucial, as none of the other midfielders have the technical skills to routinely beat defenders off the dribble. If he can catalyze from the back half of the midfield, they won’t have to worry about that.

Inter Milan

Why They Can: The world’s strongest defense. It starts in net, where Julio Cesar’s 2008 performance launched him into the elite stratosphere of keepers along with Iker Casillas and Gianluigi Buffon. In front of him are any two of Lucio, Walter Samuel, Ivan Cordoba, or Christian Chivu; between the quartet’s depth, quality, and versatility, nobody has a better set of center backs than Inter.

The wingbacks are equally stout with Davide Santon, already a full Italy international at 18, on the left and Maicon, the world’s best at his position, on the right. As if that weren’t enough, Inter also features one of the world’s best holding midfielders in Esteban Cambiasso, and talismanic captain Javier Zanetti can play either wingback spot or as a defensive midfielder.

Put it all together and it’s a nightmare for even the strongest of attacks.



Why They Can’t: Creativity. Inter fans, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Nerazzuri won’t win any European glory until they can find a link between their fearsome backline and the formidable strike force of Samuel Eto’o and Diego Milito. For the past three years, Inter dominated Serie A thanks to the almost single handed efforts of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and far too often, their game plan revolved around giving the ball to Ibra and hoping something would happen.

But Ibrahimovic is now at Barcelona and while Eto’o is perhaps the world’s best finisher, he lacks the Swede’s technical abilities. To compensate, Inter will rely on Maicon as well as new midfield arrivals Wesley Sneijder and Thiago Motta. For Inter to have any chance at taking home the elusive title, they must to move the ball efficiently and effectively.



X Factor: Sneijder. After a seemingly endless transfer saga, the Dutchman became Inter’s latest bargain pickup from Real Madrid, following the path of club stalwarts Cambiasso, Samuel and the retired Luis Figo. Needless to say, Inter will be thrilled if Sneijder plays as well as the other names on that list and if he does, Inter will be on the short list of serious title contenders. Should he live up to expectations, Sneijder will solve two long standing problems for the Beneamata – a trequarista and a dead ball specialist.

Great teams are built through the spine and with their plethora of center backs, Cambiasso, and Eto’o, Inter are set at 3/4ths of those positions. Although Sneijder suffered through an injury prone 2008 season, he was one of the world’s best midfielders for Madrid in 2007 and is markedly better than anything Inter has enjoyed in that role in recent years. More than any other player, his performance will determine how far Inter goes in the Champions League.


Juventus

Why They Can: The revamped midfield. Three years after being demoted to Serie B in the infamous Calciopioli match-fixing scandal, Juventus finally have a side capable of challenging for European glory, starting in the center of the park.

The Turin based side made possibly the best signing in Italy by bringing aboard Brazilian playmaker Diego, and already he has breathed life and unpredictability into a previously stale midfield. A relative bargain for 20 million pounds, at least in the recent wildly inflated transfer market, the ex-Werder Bremen man is the next big star of the Italian game.

Joining him is countryman Felipe Melo, a revelation at Fiorentina this past season and with the Brazilian national team in the Confederations Cup this past summer. A true box-to-box midfielder, Melo’s relentless running, stiff tackling, and crackling long shot make him an asset in any area of the pitch.

They are joined by Malian tackling machine Momo Sissoko and club staple Mauro Cameronasi. The foursome is a perfect blend of technical skill and strength, allowing the team to succeed in any style of play.



Why They Can’t: The backline. There’s no doubting Gianluigi Buffon between the posts but the group in front of him has its warts, despite (or perhaps due to) featuring 3/4ths of the Italy’s starting defense.

For all his exploits with the national team, newly signed left back Fabio Grosso hasn’t come close to replicating that form at the club level, flopping out at Inter last time he featured for an Italian club team. Giorgio Chiellini is quickly becoming one of the world’s elite center backs, but he’s reckless and prone to accruing costly penalties while his partner, Italy captain Fabio Cannavaro, is 36 and was seemingly fit for pasture just four months ago. At right back, Jonathan Zebina is, well, Jonathan Zebina – how the man is employed by a club of this stature, let alone starting, is a mystery that may never be solved.



X Factor: Cannavaro. He’s been nothing short of sensational since his controversial return to Turin, but one has to wonder how sustainable this run is, given his horrendous form at Real Madrid last season. If he keeps it up, Juventus has a center back pair that can rival anyone’s; if he doesn’t, Buffon is going to have to be on top of his game to keep the Old Lady in title contention.


Liverpool

Why They Can: Steven Gerrard. Fernando Torres. Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres. Does anything else really need to be said? Two of the world’s absolute best, a nearly guaranteed 50 goals between them, and two of the most clutch players in the sport. Regardless of who else occupies the other nine places in the lineup card, Liverpool always bears mentioning in the discussion of title contenders by virtue of such an outstanding combination.



Why They Can’t: Not enough match winners. As brilliant as Gerrard and Torres are, their teammates too often let them down, leaving countless matches in the hands of the dynamic duo to pull late game magic out of a hat and steal victory in the waning moments. It’s exciting, sure, but Liverpool walks the razor’s edge too often to go through the brutal Champions League gauntlet.

The loss of Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid only exacerbated the problem, as the Spaniard was the only other player consistently able to manufacture attacks for the Merseyside club. Players like Yossi Benayoun, Glen Johnson, and Alberto Aquilani must take the next step from good league players to consistent continental performers if Liverpool has a chance of earning their second Champions League title of the decade.



X Factor: Aquilani. The direct replacement for Alonso, it’s up the 25 year old Italian international to inject some much needed playmaking into the midfield alongside (or behind, depending on the day) Gerrard.

Aquilani demonstrated flashes of brilliance for his former club Roma, to the point where he was considered a key building block in the future of the Italian national side. But he’s battled injuries for the better part of three seasons, dimming his once bright star and keeping him out of the Azzurri altogether. Liverpool took a huge gamble by spending much of their transfer budget on him, but there’s no doubting his talent; if healthy, Aquilani could become the third big time player for the Reds.



Manchester United

Why They Can: The back line. While Inter has the world’s best overall defense, the best defensive foursome resides in Manchester. Nemanja Vidic is the world’s top center back while his partner Rio Ferdinand is not far behind; both players are big, fast, and strong enough to matchup against the world’s elite strikers. Left back Patrice Evra, himself on the shortlist for top honors at his position, provides attacking flair down the flank while right back is rotated between the equally capable captain Gary Neville, Wes Brown, and Jonny Evans, with the latter two also deputizing at center back.

While the individual quality of the key ingredients is admirable, what makes this group special is that they’ve had time to marinate together; the group has played together for the better part of four seasons and is the major reason for the club’s massive trophy haul that includes three consecutive Premier League titles to go with a 2008 Champions League title and 2009 runner-up finish.



Why They Can’t: The midfield. Cristiano Ronaldo was responsible for a much of Manchester United’s success but perhaps his greatest accomplishment was masking the relative mediocrity that is the rest of United’s midfield.

Michael Carrick is a nice player who makes all the right passes but is too easily forced off the ball and can’t create chances on his own. Ryan Giggs is stellar for a 36 year old but has lost the pace that was once one of his calling cards. Darren Fletcher is a glorified utility player. Nani and Anderson are transfer disappointments bordering on busts. Paul Scholes is too old. Owen Hargreaves would add the steel so sorely lacking in the center of the pitch, but he hasn’t played in 16 months and there’s no guarantee that he will again.

Now Ronaldo is in Madrid, replaced by the erratic Antonio Valencia, and suddenly all eyes rest upon the elephant in the room that we should have noticed two years ago: United’s midfield may not rank among the top quarter of Premiership sides, let alone other European powerhouses.

United too closely resembles the disappointing Inter Milan teams of the past several years, with a woefully inadequate midfield sandwiched between its world class defense and attack. Unless two or more of the aforementioned players dramatically raise their game alongside Carrick, Man U is heading toward an early knockout round exit.

X Factor: Really, this should be Hargreaves but until he steps foot on a pitch, it isn’t worth discussing. Instead, the honor goes to Bulgarian striker Dimitar Berbatov, who has everything to prove in his second season with the Red Devils after a disappointing 14 goal 2008-2009 campaign.

On paper, the 6’2’’ Berbatov is the perfect complement to Wayne Rooney, the powerful target man who should benefit from Rooney’s workaholic runs and great dribbling. He’d better be, as Sir Alex Ferguson no longer has Ronaldo nor Carlos Tevez to keep the Red Devils on the score sheet and defenders off Rooney’s back.

A minimum of 20 goals is needed for United’s offense to keep pace with its previous lofty standards.



Real Madrid

Why They Can: Firepower, and lots of it. You’d certainly hope so after they spent a world record 254 million euros in the summer transfer window. At the very least, though, Madrid appeared to choose their targets wisely as Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Xabi Alonso are among the world’s best players with plenty of great football ahead of them – Alonso’s the oldest and he doesn’t turn 28 until November.

Plenty more can be said about each one but all you really need to know is that 21 year old Argentine sensation Gonzalo Higuain scored 24 goals last season and yet he’s rooted to the bench as the third choice striker. Simply put, Madrid is loaded up front.



Why They Can’t: Too many cooks in the kitchen. Having a ton of offense is all well and good but at the end of the day, there’s only one ball to share between them. Alonso, as the deep lying playmaker, needs the ball to orchestrate attacks further up the pitch. Sergio Ramos needs the ball to make his often misguided runs from his right back position. Kaka needs the ball to play his hybrid trequarista-center forward role just as Raul and Benzema need the ball to score goals.

Ronaldo? Well, anyone who’s watched him play more than five minutes knows that he needs the ball, and he can get a bit testy when it doesn’t come his way.

The last era of Galacticos proved many things but chief among them was the futility in building a lineup fit for video games and expecting the titles to rain down in rapid succession. Madrid must lay down a pecking order very quickly or things are going to fall apart during the pressure packed knockout stages.



X Factor: Lassana Diarra. If that last paragraph was the first lesson to be taken from the Galacticos Mach I, then the second is the importance of defense, and in particular the role of the holding midfielder. The transfer of Claude Makelele to Chelsea in 2003 not only provided the London club with one of the cornerstones of their rise to prominence but also stripped Madrid of the man who cleaned up the multitude of defensive messes that its attackers left behind. Not surprisingly, many pundits point to this as the catalyst of Madrid’s relative downfall.

Diarra was bought in the January 2009 transfer window and has been nothing short of tremendous for Madrid thus far. His performance in the so-called “Makelele role” is paramount, as he will be expected to provide enough steel for nearly half the side.



So who will win, you ask?

It’s far too early to guess, but the four teams that seem to be a cut above the rest are Barcelona, Chelsea, Inter Milan, and Real Madrid.

Without the benefit of foresight or the possession of crystal ball, I’ll cast out a way too premature prediction:

Barcelona 3-1 Chelsea in the Champions League final, making the Catalans the first team ever to repeat in the Champions League era.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Final Countdown: 9 Returning Starters that Will Take the Leap


-Joe Adams, sophomore, WR, Arkansas – Originally committed to play CB at USC, Adams spurned the Trojans on signing day in order to play WR for his hometown Razorbacks – and Hawg fans everywhere are glad he did.

Extremely shifty and uncommonly instinctive, Adams is a terror in the open field who possesses enough deep speed to beat most corners. With rocket-armed Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett under center, Adams should catch plenty of long balls this season in Fayetteville.


-Danario Alexander, senior, WR, Missouri – Some receivers have trouble running routes. Others have issues catching balls. Danario Alexander’s troubles deal with staying out of the trainer’s room. Over the course of his career, the Missouri senior tore his ACL in the 2007 Big 12 title game, only to re-tear it months later during his rehabilitation. He’s missed 8 more games over the past three years due to various other ailments.

It’s a shame, because Alexander is a game breaker when he does take the field. Physically, he’s everything you’d want in a top tier receiver – 6’5’’, 215 lbs with enough speed to stretch the defense. Kansas knows that all too well; in the 2007 border war between the #2 Jayhawks and #3 Tigers, Alexander abused the KU secondary to the tune of 8 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown.

Expect a lot more of that this year with All American Jeremy Maclin now in the NFL – assuming, of course, that Alexander can stay healthy.


-John Clay, sophomore, RB, Wisconsin – One of the most highly touted recruits to come out of the state of Wisconsin in years, the 247lb Clay is the latest bulldozing Badger tailback. After receiving sporadic playing time to start 2008, Clay supplanted the prolific PJ Hill halfway through the season and never looked back, totaling 542 of his 884 yards in the last six regular season games. Now, with the job to himself at one of the nation’s premier running schools, Clay could challenge for a conference rushing crown.


-Montel Harris, sophomore, RB, Boston College – The best running back you’ve never heard of. Last year, in his true freshman season, Harris ran for an even 900 yards on 5 yards per carry and was a huge part of BC’s second consecutive ACC title game appearance. He comes up big when it matters, too, putting up 121 yards and a touchdown at Florida State and 116 yards vs. Maryland in two must win games for the Eagles. At any other program, Harris would be a household name already; at BC, he’ll have to settle for becoming one sometime this season.


-Aldarius Johnson, sophomore, WR, Miami – Between 2007 and 2008, nobody signed more receivers than the Hurricanes, who inked 10 – coun’t em – 10 receivers to letters of intent. Needless to say, someone has to step out of that crowded mess to become the go-to man, and the bet here is Johnson. At 6’2’’, 205, Johnson has the frame and the willingness to go over the middle and get tough balls, but also has superb open field skills for a bigger receiver.

The x-factor that might set him apart, however, is his familiarity with QB Jacory Harris. The two formed one of the elite pass-catch combos back in their high school days at Miami Northwestern, and figure to reprise that in 2009.


-Detron Lewis, junior, WR, Texas Tech – Coming off a 76 catch, 913 yard season, Detron Lewis is hardly neither unknown nor unproven. But his headlines – and opportunities – still were limited next Michael Crabtree’s dominance.

Now, it’s Lewis’ show and while that likely will entail more double teams, it also means that Lewis will be the first, second, and third options in Texas Tech’s pinball offense. If nothing else, Lewis should have no trouble tripling last season’s 3 touchdowns.


-Ryan Matthews, junior, RB, Fresno State – Another star-in-waiting who has been held back by injuries. After running for 866 yards as freshman, Matthews missed half of 2008 with a knee injury yet still cleared the 600 yard barrier. Over 3/4ths of those came in the first four games of the season, which happen to be the only ones he was truly healthy for. With a week 2 road game against Wisconsin, Matthews will have an early opportunity to show the rest of the country what he’s capable of now that he’s healthy.


-Rahim Moore, sophomore, FS, UCLA – A highly touted recruit out of Los Angeles Dorsey High, Moore became the first Bruin true freshman to start a season opener since 2001 en route to starting all 12 games at FS. He possesses a safety’s build with a cornerback’s coverage skills, and barring injury, will likely start every game of his UCLA career. Only a matter of time before he is a first team all conference pick.


-Donovan Warren, junior, CB, Michigan – Other than quarterback, cornerback might be the toughest position for a true freshman to play at a consistently high level. Between learning complicated coverages, undertaking what often is their first weight-training program, and going up against receivers who are older and more mature, the demands are often too much for an 18 year old to handle.

Donovan Warren was not most 18 year olds, and he is not most corners. A 2007 freshman All American, Warren enters this year having started 22 of the first 24 games of his collegiate career. Now, only halfway through his eligibility, he is the Wolverines’ most experienced cover man, which means he’ll be the one tasked with stopping receivers such as Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd, Ohio State’s DeVier Posey, and Michigan State’s Mark Dell among others. Warren will give them all they can handle with jumbo corner size (6’0’’, 185lbs) and veteran corner savvy.

Final Countdown: 10 High Impact First Year Starters




This is Part 1 (or item 10) of my intended college football preview, The Final Countdown. As is the case with the other player specific sections, I had two main goals:

1. Spend at least part of the section highlighting players under the radar nationally

2. Try to mention as many schools as possible

Also remember, as per my disclaimer on the original post, that all of this was written before the season began. That means that if a player failed, then I missed on the prediction. But that also means that if someone is blowing up, I didn't just hop on the bandwagon after a strong week 1 performance (and there are quite a few of those to be found).

Overall, its much shorter than something I normally write, but it was intended to be part of a much, much larger piece; I didn't want to tire the reader (or myself out) in the first section.

But while there's less analysis than what I'd normally provide, I'd wager that at least two or three of these names are players that nobody is talking about, with a few more not getting the recognition they deserve.

I think you'll be entertained and get some insight that you won't see on other national previews. Enjoy


-Jurrell Casey, sophomore, DT, USC – The next collegiate standout from high school superpower Long Beach Poly. A 6’0’’, 300lb fire hydrant of a nose tackle who is built like recent Trojan standouts Mike Patterson and Sedrick Ellis – and he plays with the same relentless streak too.




-Marvin Jones, sophomore, WR, Cal – With Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen set to run Pac 10 defenses ragged, there will be plenty of single coverage for the Golden Bear receivers, and Jones, unusually savvy for his age, figures to the main beneficiary.





-Corey Liuget, sophomore, DT, Illinois – Upon Ron Zook’s arrival in Champaign, one of his primary goals was building a recruiting pipeline into Florida to take advantage of the connections he made as the Florida Gators’ head coach.

Liuget, a Miami native, is going to be the first of those Sunshine State recruits to make an impact for the Illini. Heading into his second year of college, he already boasts ideal size (6’3’’, 290 lbs) coupled with incredible athleticism; very rarely do men this big move this fast.

Illinois already featured three of the nation’s most talented athletes in Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, and Martez Wilson; expect Liuget to make it four.




-DeVier Posey, sophomore, WR, Ohio State – Perhaps the most physically gifted receiver Jim Tressel has ever recruited, the 6’3’’ sophomore will be the Buckeye’s top receiver this season. Expect him to join classmates Julio Jones, AJ Green, Michael Floyd, DeAndre Brown and Jeff Fuller in forming one of the greatest receiving classes in college football history.




-Baker Steinkuhler, redshirt freshman, DT, Nebraska – The son of legendary Husker OL Dean Steinkuhler and the brother of recent almnus DT Ty Steinkuhler, Baker also doubles as the most decorated recruit in school history. Orginally slated for the offensive line, Baker switched to defense upon reaching campus. Though he may start out the season as a backup, players blessed with his physical talents are uncommon in Lincoln these days, meaning that he should be starting by midseason, and together with All-American Ndamukong Suh, forming one of the most imposing sets of tackles in the nation.




-Cooper Taylor, sophomore, LB/DB, Georgia Tech – The main reason Georgia Tech is switching to a 4-2-5 defense this season. He finished second on the team in 2008 with 69 tackles, and he did so as a true freshman while only starting 3 games. At a rangy 6’4’’, Taylor will team with All-American S Morgan Burnett to provide matchup problems galore for the rest of the ACC





-Jermaine Thomas, sophomore, RB, Florida State – As a true freshman last season, Thomas averaged a staggering 7.0 yards per carry, the highest average by a Seminole freshman since Warrick Dunn’s freshman year. Big enough - 6’0’’, 190lbs – to absorb punishment; fast enough to avoid it entirely.




-Jordan Todman, sophomore, RB, Connecticut – How can a player be overlooked after scoring 67 touchdown in his high school career while rushing for the third highest total in his state’s history?

If that state is high school football afterthought Massachusetts.

But despite only receiving a handful of scholarship offers, 5’9’’ speedster Jordan Todman was impressive last year in spot duty, backing up the nation’s leader rusher Donald Brown. Now that Brown is off to the NFL, the job is Todman’s and if he gets anywhere near Brown’s 2008 workload, don’t expect him to fly under the radar much longer.




-Carson York, redshirt freshman, OG, Oregon – Oregon returns just one starter from last year’s offensive line, no small trifle considering the Ducks’ run-heavy spread offense. York, a former Rivals 250 prospect, is the youngest of the group’s projected starters, but he’s also the most talented.






-Ryan Williams, redshirt freshman, RB, Virginia Tech – Before Darren Evans came out of nowhere to rush for 1,265 yards as a redshirt freshman, Ryan Williams was supposed to be Virginia Tech’s next star tailback. One year and one Evans’ knee injury later, it’s up to Williams’ to do just that. At 5’9’’, 205lbs, Williams combines powerful, low center of gravity with the open-field shiftiness needed to get yards in any situation, and maybe make Hokie fans forget about Evans altogether.