I said back in July that I needed more bloggy stuff, and I realize now in September that I need an easy go-to column, a concept that I can run with week-to-week, without killing myself putting it together.
Since I'm always looking for an excuse to talk college football, and because everybody loves a good upset, I'm bringing you the Mike Likes Sports Upset Special, which will run sometime every Thursday or Friday, and will predict a top 25 upset for that week's slate of games.
Now, picking upsets is probably one of the toughest things to do in college football, as there's usually only one to two big ones each week and they very often come completely at random; in other words, I offer you no guarantee of success and in no way, shape, or form do I advise you to take these to Vegas...unless you already took one of these to Vegas and it panned out, in which case my cut is about 15% of the profits.
Think of this as using a metal detector to find a needle in the haystack; it's still really difficult with poor odds, but it will save you some time wading through horse crap.
We've got about 10 weeks left of regular season play, and truth be told, I'd be thrilled if I break even, happy if I go 4-6, and content if it's 3-7. Like I said, keep the expectations low; it's more food for thought than anything else.
If I DO have a track record to go on, it's this - last week's pick would have been USC-Washington. Really. I'll even post the write up I had if anyone cares enough to challenge me on this. In fact, I'm starting myself off at 1-0, mostly to buttress my ego in preparation for the onslaught of wrong that I'm about to encounter.
Before we get to the pick, let's go with the honorable mentions:
*#7 LSU at Mississippi State - Seems about time for the Jordan Jefferson sophomore slump. Really thought of taking this one, but new Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is too unproven for me to stake my pick on him
*South Florida at #18 Florida State - I would have been all over this had Matt Grothe not torn up his knee. Nice story with new QB BJ Daniels - a Tallahassee native - coming home but without Grothe, I don't think its happening
*#22 North Carolina at Georgia Tech - You just know Tech is going to rip off 300 yards rushing in a game that they need to save their conference title hopes. Not big enough to merit a full Upset Special.
*#15 TCU at Clemson - I don't care if TCU is top 25 and Clemson isn't; I don't care if TCU annually overachieves while Clemson perennially disappoints; and I certainly don't care about everybody hyping the Frogs as a BCS buster when we all know that they'll lose a game sooner or later.
Bottom line is this: a mid major team is going into Death Valley to face CJ Spiller. Barring a Clemson-esque meltdown - and hey, those are always fun - the power conference team is going to win.
Wow, I just sounded WAY too much like Colin Cowherd. Let's get to the pick before I headline a terrible ESPN News show with a much more attractive and talented co-host.
Arkansas at #3 Alabama
I really like Arkansas, so much so that this is my pick to be the next Ole Miss (circa 2008, not the underwhelming bunch we’ve seen so far this season).
I like them because their offense is very, very good – not SEC, “we can clear 20 points in a game” good; actually good.
It starts with having a quarterback under center that isn’t a total Dick (get your mind out of the gutter - I’m referring to Casey and Nathan). In particular, it starts with having Ryan Mallett under center, who pretty much hits every cliché in Southern football hero checklist.
*Built like a steel beam (6’7’’, 245lbs) with a bazooka for a right arm? Check.
*Put your small, football obsessed Texas border town (Texarkana) on the map? Check.
*Go away up north to school (Michigan) before coming back to your hometown school? Check.
*Lead your hometown school back to national relevance? Pending.
So far, so good for Mallett, who has thrown for 717 yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs in his first two games in Fayetteville, with 5 of those coming in last weekend’s barn burner against Georgia.
The physical skills are there in abundance with more than one comparison being made to a young Drew Bledsoe, which can be both good (the size and the arm) and bad (slightly more mobile than the Washington Monument) depending on your perspective. But make no mistake, he’ll shred secondaries apart if he’s given time to throw.
He’s got plenty of help, too. The running back troika of 2008 rushing leader Michael Smith, USC transfer Broderick Green, and true freshman Ronnie Wingo Jr. give the Hawgs a nice balance of small, big, and everything in between. The receivers – namely Joe Adams, Jairus Wright, and Greg Childs – can flat-out run while tight end DJ Williams is among the top five nationally at his position.
What separates this group from the 2009 Ole Misses of the world, however, is coaching. Say what you want about his professional ethics but Bobby Petrino knows how to win and has experienced success everywhere he’s gone in the college game.
Sure, he’ll probably be coaching at another school before the redshirt sophomore Mallett has completed his eligibility, but for now, he’s going to get the ship righted in a hurry.
Back to this week, though, and the young Razorbacks’ upcoming tangle in Tuscaloosa. Make no mistake about it, the Crimson Tide are every bit the tough, nasty bunch you’d expect an Alabama team to be, with perhaps the nation’s best defense; a power running game headed by Mark Ingram and true freshman Trent Richardson; and The Amazing Julio Jones, whose physical gifts necessitate capitalization.
In many ways, this is a battle of ideologies as much as a football game, the quasi-spread aerial prowess of Arkansas versus the old school, bruising tenacity of Alabama. It’s also a battle of one of the game’s next big coaches, Petrino, versus one of its alpha dogs, Nick Saban.
Needless to say, there is an above average level of intrigue for a game between a top 3 team playing at home against an unranked one.
There’s good reason for that ranking disparity, as Alabama’s defense significantly outclasses the Razorbacks unit and should their new O Line starters (LT James Carpenter, C William Vlachos, and RG Barrett Jones) hold up, they’ll likely have an advantage on both fronts.
So why am I picking the baby ‘Backs on the road? For two reasons.
First, that tremendous offense. I think the Tide should be able to handle the ground game with relative ease, but their secondary – which isn’t as strong as the front 7 – is going to struggle to contain all three of the wideouts as well as Williams; somebody’s going to get loose and with the receiving corps’ straight line speed, Mallet will have opportunities to throw the long ball for big points.
Alabama can counter this by dropping one of their outstanding linebackers, Rolando McClain or Dont’a Hightower, into coverage but that mitigate their advantage against the run, something Saban is likely to avoid, especially given Alabama’s lack of a dominant edge rusher, the closest thing to a weakness this defense has.
Any way you cut it, Arksansas’ offense is talented enough to create opportunities for Mallett to put points on the board, and as he’s shown so far this season, he makes opponents pay when he has time to throw.
But the bigger reason, more than the x’s and o’s, is a gut feeling that the time is now for Arkansas. This game is eerily similar to last year’s Ole Miss’ victory over Florida in Gainesville, and the young 2009 season already has established a pattern of top 5 teams going down in upset fashion.
Alabama is favored for their dominance in the trenches and the very high likelihood that Julio Jones will abuse the Razorbacks’ smaller corners.
But for as well as they’ve played so far, this still is a team with a first year starting QB (Greg McElroy) playing behind an overhauled offensive line and if Arkansas’s big play offense goes up a couple of scores, nobody knows how well the Tide play catch up against a deficit larger than one point (which they faced against Virginia Tech).
Every up and coming program needs a statement game, a put-it-on-the-map type of victory. This is Arkansas’, Ryan Mallett’s, and Bobby Petrino’s, and it comes, ironically enough, against the team that did the very same thing at around this time last season
Arkansas 35, Alabama 28
LOL!
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