With the group stages of the Champions League opening today, fans from team across the globe have their hearts aflutter over the romantic notion that their club could take home the claret jug and be crowned the best team in Europe.
While that’s adorable, it’s also delusional. Soccer is a game of economic haves and have-nots and the occasional 2004 Porto notwithstanding, the haves win.
Every. Damn. Time.
I’m a pragmatist, so rather than go into detail about all thirty two teams, let’s instead delve into discussion over the real contenders for European glory. By my count, there are nine and only nine.
Below is the breakdown of why each team can, or cannot win, as well as the player that will make or break their fortunes. Enjoy.
Arsenal
Why They Can: Creativity. Arsenal have long been lauded for playing attractive football and this group is no different. Cesc Fabergas and Andrey Arshavin are two of the game’s premier attacking midfielders while the versatile Robin Van Persie can stymie defenses either from the wing or more commonly up front as a striker.
It will only get better for the Gunners, as Czech midfielder Tomas Rosicky just returned from a lengthy injury layoff while 21 year old French wizard Samir Nasri should be back on the pitch by late October, giving them a group whose technical ability is rivaled only by Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Why They Can’t: Strength. For all their skill, Arsenal can be easily bullied. The center back pairing of William Gallas and Thomas Vermaelen are technically sound but neither is taller than 5’10’’, making them ripe for bigger strikers to out-jump and out-muscle.
Of even greater concern is the glaring lack of a powerful ball winner in the midfield, a weakness that has gone unaddressed since Patrick Vieira’s departure in 2005. None of Arsenal’s great playmakers play much defense, so if they lose possession it takes a while to get it back.
Put it together and Arsenal could really struggle should they run into physical sides from England or Italy, having already lost league matches to Manchester United and Manchester City this season.
X Factor: Manuel Almunia. Given their reliance on highly skilled young players, the understated 34 year old keeper seemingly flies in the face of Arsenal’s entire philosophy. The former backup to Jens Lehmann, Almunia has done just fine since being promoted into the first team midway through the 2007-2008 campaign.
Yet given the Gunner’s struggles with fitness and the aforementioned problems with bigger and stronger teams, Almunia could face a much heavier workload in this year’s European campaign; how he fares could be the difference between being an above average shot stopper and a potentially great one.
Barcelona
Why They Can: Because they’re even better than last year. Barcelona already won the treble in 2008-2009, and that was before they added Zlatan Ibrahimovic, whose ball skills and ability to play with his back to the goal are a better fit for the Catalans’ up-tempo style than the departed Samuel Eto’o.
Why They Can’t: Barcelona is the most complete side in the world, so any criticism really is nitpicking. That being said, Barcelona’s defense is very rarely tested and given the individual qualities of their backline, could show some leaks if it was. Both Dani Alves and the left back duo of Eric Abidal and Maxwell are subpar in defense, while Victor Valdes has never inspired full confidence among the Blaugrana faithful.
Of course, much of this is conjecture; Barcelona boasts such a superior possession rate that the defense seldom has much work to do. Until someone applies consistent pressure to it, it will be impossible to tell just how good – or bad – the backline truly is.
X Factor: Valdes. Seemingly every transfer campaign begins the same way for FCB: Valdes to be sold, ______ to replace him. Yet when the summer ends, there stands Valdes between the pipes. Though the keeper has been prone to the occasional mental lapse, he is still a very solid player who has more than earned his blue and maroon stripes. But like an erratic closer in baseball, you never feel fully safe with Valdes in goal and if one of those errors comes at the wrong time…
Bayern Munich
Why They Can: “Robbery” aka wingers Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery. They give Bayern the world’s best pair of wide men, bar none, and together give Bayern the rare ability to wreak havoc on either flank. Indeed, since Robben’s arrival just before the transfer window closed in late August, Bayern have gone from sputtering to sensational in the blink of an eye, most recently dominating Borussia Dortmund 5-1.
Why They Can’t: Goalkeeping . When German legend Oliver Kahn retired after the 2007 season, everyone knew that he would leave some big boots to fill but nobody expected Germany’s most flagship club to struggle so mightily in filling them. 25 year old Michael Rensing was seen as Kahn’s successor both at Bayern and with the German national team, yet he has struggled under the weight of those expectations and was replaced by veteran Hans-Georg Butt. While Butt is solid, he is hardly spectacular and coupled with an often shaky backline, will struggle against Europe’s elite attacking units.
X Factor: Daniel Van Buyten. Bayern was defensively suspect last season, which made the sale of long time defensive stalwart Lucio to Inter Milan that much more puzzling. If the Bavarians are to make a serious run at the Champions League crown, they will need the Belgian international to shepherd the defense as well as marking some of Europe’s top strikers. No small task to say the least, but unless youngster Holger Badstuber plays well beyond his years, Van Buyten is the only man fit for the job.
Chelsea
Why They Can: Balance. If Barcelona is the most complete team in the world, Chelsea is a close second, with no discernable weakness. They boast two prolific strikers in Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka; an outstanding keeper in Petr Cech; an elite center back tandem in John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho; perhaps the world’s finest left back in Ashley Cole; and quality midfielders galore in Michael Essien, Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack, John Obi Mikel, Deco, and Florent Malouda.
On top of that, it’s an experienced group, both in the amount of time played with each other and the games spent competing at the game’s highest level.
Why They Can’t: Age. For all those prolific names mentioned, many of them are entering the latter stages of their prime. In particular, Lampard, Ballack, Drogba, Anelka, Carvalho, and Deco are all on the wrong side of 30, with Terry and Cole each turning 29 before the year is out.
The problem is exacerbated by FIFA’s recent ruling that the Blues can’t transfer in any players until January 2011, a brutal blow should anyone in Chelsea’s aging squad go down with an injury.
The cherry on the sundae? Drogba, Mikel, and Essien will miss nearly all of January playing in the African Cup of Nations.
X Factor: Mikel. New Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti has been determined to put his stamp on the side by importing his signature 4-1-2-1 “diamond” formation from AC Milan, irrespective of the fact that the personnel at hand might be better suited for a different batch of tactics.
Indeed, while Lampard has had little problem slotting behind the strikers and though Essien is right at home in the holding midfielder role, John Obi Mikel has experienced difficulty replicating Andrea Pirlo’s role as the deep lying playmaker. While his strengths (attacking runs through the middle of the park) are different than what the position calls for (deferential, visionary passing), Ancelotti has nonetheless slotted him into the position and likely will keep him there.
His success will be crucial, as none of the other midfielders have the technical skills to routinely beat defenders off the dribble. If he can catalyze from the back half of the midfield, they won’t have to worry about that.
Inter Milan
Why They Can: The world’s strongest defense. It starts in net, where Julio Cesar’s 2008 performance launched him into the elite stratosphere of keepers along with Iker Casillas and Gianluigi Buffon. In front of him are any two of Lucio, Walter Samuel, Ivan Cordoba, or Christian Chivu; between the quartet’s depth, quality, and versatility, nobody has a better set of center backs than Inter.
The wingbacks are equally stout with Davide Santon, already a full Italy international at 18, on the left and Maicon, the world’s best at his position, on the right. As if that weren’t enough, Inter also features one of the world’s best holding midfielders in Esteban Cambiasso, and talismanic captain Javier Zanetti can play either wingback spot or as a defensive midfielder.
Put it all together and it’s a nightmare for even the strongest of attacks.
Why They Can’t: Creativity. Inter fans, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Nerazzuri won’t win any European glory until they can find a link between their fearsome backline and the formidable strike force of Samuel Eto’o and Diego Milito. For the past three years, Inter dominated Serie A thanks to the almost single handed efforts of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and far too often, their game plan revolved around giving the ball to Ibra and hoping something would happen.
But Ibrahimovic is now at Barcelona and while Eto’o is perhaps the world’s best finisher, he lacks the Swede’s technical abilities. To compensate, Inter will rely on Maicon as well as new midfield arrivals Wesley Sneijder and Thiago Motta. For Inter to have any chance at taking home the elusive title, they must to move the ball efficiently and effectively.
X Factor: Sneijder. After a seemingly endless transfer saga, the Dutchman became Inter’s latest bargain pickup from Real Madrid, following the path of club stalwarts Cambiasso, Samuel and the retired Luis Figo. Needless to say, Inter will be thrilled if Sneijder plays as well as the other names on that list and if he does, Inter will be on the short list of serious title contenders. Should he live up to expectations, Sneijder will solve two long standing problems for the Beneamata – a trequarista and a dead ball specialist.
Great teams are built through the spine and with their plethora of center backs, Cambiasso, and Eto’o, Inter are set at 3/4ths of those positions. Although Sneijder suffered through an injury prone 2008 season, he was one of the world’s best midfielders for Madrid in 2007 and is markedly better than anything Inter has enjoyed in that role in recent years. More than any other player, his performance will determine how far Inter goes in the Champions League.
Juventus
Why They Can: The revamped midfield. Three years after being demoted to Serie B in the infamous Calciopioli match-fixing scandal, Juventus finally have a side capable of challenging for European glory, starting in the center of the park.
The Turin based side made possibly the best signing in Italy by bringing aboard Brazilian playmaker Diego, and already he has breathed life and unpredictability into a previously stale midfield. A relative bargain for 20 million pounds, at least in the recent wildly inflated transfer market, the ex-Werder Bremen man is the next big star of the Italian game.
Joining him is countryman Felipe Melo, a revelation at Fiorentina this past season and with the Brazilian national team in the Confederations Cup this past summer. A true box-to-box midfielder, Melo’s relentless running, stiff tackling, and crackling long shot make him an asset in any area of the pitch.
They are joined by Malian tackling machine Momo Sissoko and club staple Mauro Cameronasi. The foursome is a perfect blend of technical skill and strength, allowing the team to succeed in any style of play.
Why They Can’t: The backline. There’s no doubting Gianluigi Buffon between the posts but the group in front of him has its warts, despite (or perhaps due to) featuring 3/4ths of the Italy’s starting defense.
For all his exploits with the national team, newly signed left back Fabio Grosso hasn’t come close to replicating that form at the club level, flopping out at Inter last time he featured for an Italian club team. Giorgio Chiellini is quickly becoming one of the world’s elite center backs, but he’s reckless and prone to accruing costly penalties while his partner, Italy captain Fabio Cannavaro, is 36 and was seemingly fit for pasture just four months ago. At right back, Jonathan Zebina is, well, Jonathan Zebina – how the man is employed by a club of this stature, let alone starting, is a mystery that may never be solved.
X Factor: Cannavaro. He’s been nothing short of sensational since his controversial return to Turin, but one has to wonder how sustainable this run is, given his horrendous form at Real Madrid last season. If he keeps it up, Juventus has a center back pair that can rival anyone’s; if he doesn’t, Buffon is going to have to be on top of his game to keep the Old Lady in title contention.
Liverpool
Why They Can: Steven Gerrard. Fernando Torres. Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres. Does anything else really need to be said? Two of the world’s absolute best, a nearly guaranteed 50 goals between them, and two of the most clutch players in the sport. Regardless of who else occupies the other nine places in the lineup card, Liverpool always bears mentioning in the discussion of title contenders by virtue of such an outstanding combination.
Why They Can’t: Not enough match winners. As brilliant as Gerrard and Torres are, their teammates too often let them down, leaving countless matches in the hands of the dynamic duo to pull late game magic out of a hat and steal victory in the waning moments. It’s exciting, sure, but Liverpool walks the razor’s edge too often to go through the brutal Champions League gauntlet.
The loss of Xabi Alonso to Real Madrid only exacerbated the problem, as the Spaniard was the only other player consistently able to manufacture attacks for the Merseyside club. Players like Yossi Benayoun, Glen Johnson, and Alberto Aquilani must take the next step from good league players to consistent continental performers if Liverpool has a chance of earning their second Champions League title of the decade.
X Factor: Aquilani. The direct replacement for Alonso, it’s up the 25 year old Italian international to inject some much needed playmaking into the midfield alongside (or behind, depending on the day) Gerrard.
Aquilani demonstrated flashes of brilliance for his former club Roma, to the point where he was considered a key building block in the future of the Italian national side. But he’s battled injuries for the better part of three seasons, dimming his once bright star and keeping him out of the Azzurri altogether. Liverpool took a huge gamble by spending much of their transfer budget on him, but there’s no doubting his talent; if healthy, Aquilani could become the third big time player for the Reds.
Manchester United
Why They Can: The back line. While Inter has the world’s best overall defense, the best defensive foursome resides in Manchester. Nemanja Vidic is the world’s top center back while his partner Rio Ferdinand is not far behind; both players are big, fast, and strong enough to matchup against the world’s elite strikers. Left back Patrice Evra, himself on the shortlist for top honors at his position, provides attacking flair down the flank while right back is rotated between the equally capable captain Gary Neville, Wes Brown, and Jonny Evans, with the latter two also deputizing at center back.
While the individual quality of the key ingredients is admirable, what makes this group special is that they’ve had time to marinate together; the group has played together for the better part of four seasons and is the major reason for the club’s massive trophy haul that includes three consecutive Premier League titles to go with a 2008 Champions League title and 2009 runner-up finish.
Why They Can’t: The midfield. Cristiano Ronaldo was responsible for a much of Manchester United’s success but perhaps his greatest accomplishment was masking the relative mediocrity that is the rest of United’s midfield.
Michael Carrick is a nice player who makes all the right passes but is too easily forced off the ball and can’t create chances on his own. Ryan Giggs is stellar for a 36 year old but has lost the pace that was once one of his calling cards. Darren Fletcher is a glorified utility player. Nani and Anderson are transfer disappointments bordering on busts. Paul Scholes is too old. Owen Hargreaves would add the steel so sorely lacking in the center of the pitch, but he hasn’t played in 16 months and there’s no guarantee that he will again.
Now Ronaldo is in Madrid, replaced by the erratic Antonio Valencia, and suddenly all eyes rest upon the elephant in the room that we should have noticed two years ago: United’s midfield may not rank among the top quarter of Premiership sides, let alone other European powerhouses.
United too closely resembles the disappointing Inter Milan teams of the past several years, with a woefully inadequate midfield sandwiched between its world class defense and attack. Unless two or more of the aforementioned players dramatically raise their game alongside Carrick, Man U is heading toward an early knockout round exit.
X Factor: Really, this should be Hargreaves but until he steps foot on a pitch, it isn’t worth discussing. Instead, the honor goes to Bulgarian striker Dimitar Berbatov, who has everything to prove in his second season with the Red Devils after a disappointing 14 goal 2008-2009 campaign.
On paper, the 6’2’’ Berbatov is the perfect complement to Wayne Rooney, the powerful target man who should benefit from Rooney’s workaholic runs and great dribbling. He’d better be, as Sir Alex Ferguson no longer has Ronaldo nor Carlos Tevez to keep the Red Devils on the score sheet and defenders off Rooney’s back.
A minimum of 20 goals is needed for United’s offense to keep pace with its previous lofty standards.
Real Madrid
Why They Can: Firepower, and lots of it. You’d certainly hope so after they spent a world record 254 million euros in the summer transfer window. At the very least, though, Madrid appeared to choose their targets wisely as Kaka, Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Xabi Alonso are among the world’s best players with plenty of great football ahead of them – Alonso’s the oldest and he doesn’t turn 28 until November.
Plenty more can be said about each one but all you really need to know is that 21 year old Argentine sensation Gonzalo Higuain scored 24 goals last season and yet he’s rooted to the bench as the third choice striker. Simply put, Madrid is loaded up front.
Why They Can’t: Too many cooks in the kitchen. Having a ton of offense is all well and good but at the end of the day, there’s only one ball to share between them. Alonso, as the deep lying playmaker, needs the ball to orchestrate attacks further up the pitch. Sergio Ramos needs the ball to make his often misguided runs from his right back position. Kaka needs the ball to play his hybrid trequarista-center forward role just as Raul and Benzema need the ball to score goals.
Ronaldo? Well, anyone who’s watched him play more than five minutes knows that he needs the ball, and he can get a bit testy when it doesn’t come his way.
The last era of Galacticos proved many things but chief among them was the futility in building a lineup fit for video games and expecting the titles to rain down in rapid succession. Madrid must lay down a pecking order very quickly or things are going to fall apart during the pressure packed knockout stages.
X Factor: Lassana Diarra. If that last paragraph was the first lesson to be taken from the Galacticos Mach I, then the second is the importance of defense, and in particular the role of the holding midfielder. The transfer of Claude Makelele to Chelsea in 2003 not only provided the London club with one of the cornerstones of their rise to prominence but also stripped Madrid of the man who cleaned up the multitude of defensive messes that its attackers left behind. Not surprisingly, many pundits point to this as the catalyst of Madrid’s relative downfall.
Diarra was bought in the January 2009 transfer window and has been nothing short of tremendous for Madrid thus far. His performance in the so-called “Makelele role” is paramount, as he will be expected to provide enough steel for nearly half the side.
So who will win, you ask?
It’s far too early to guess, but the four teams that seem to be a cut above the rest are Barcelona, Chelsea, Inter Milan, and Real Madrid.
Without the benefit of foresight or the possession of crystal ball, I’ll cast out a way too premature prediction:
Barcelona 3-1 Chelsea in the Champions League final, making the Catalans the first team ever to repeat in the Champions League era.
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